STILL 4 DAYS AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AND ALL HELL HAS BROKEN LOOSE, gasoline for vehicles and generators is avail if you wait 2 hrs, some cities west are of the anticipated flood zone are in less havoc, for now. There is already internet slowness, and price gouging. Water is available at some stores, as soon as a shipment comes in, its sold. The current atmosphere reminds me of the aftermath of Hurricane Andrew and Irma looks to be a much stronger and bigger storm. I expect when Irma starts inflicting damage on the Islands and the death toll mounts, it will get even more real.
I will be preparing specs until the power goes out which will probably be Saturday, if flooding occurs it will be from the lake outside my door, no rivers nearby to crest. Miami is another story, it could easily be another Houston.
And Key West will be underwater for a while as Irma is projected to hit the Conch Republic head on.
Thanks for updating us. Stay dry and safe from wind.
Praying for you and your daughter Jerome. I wish you had high ground.
Ken thanks for the support. No one knows where landfall will be until a few hours before the storm hits, but IRMA is so big we will probably feel hurricane force winds. I have reinforced my home (and office) over the years but not for 185 mph, though they are predicting 145 mph when it hits, still that will be enough to hurt us significantly. Praying it shifts further east, I would rather be on the SW side of the storm.
Jerome, I am praying for you and your daughter as well. I cannot imagine what you are going through, but I sense that you have the strength in you to endure it.
Don’t know what to say except hunker down. I am fortunate in that Harvey was an inconvenience that put us behind, but my home was high and dry and there was little damage to my office (second floor of a 2-story office building). The power was out at the office most of last week, and we still are not supposed to be working there. There is power, phones, and AC, but the first floor had 4 to 6 inches of water and they are still tearing out floor finishes, drywall, etc. The winds were never a factor in Houston (except for the tornadoes).
Youwill be in our thoughts and prayers.
Jerome,
We’re sharing the same hopes in Central Florida. The worst case scenario is not a good one for here. We’ll be writing specs until the Internet goes down (and then some) but we have a good generator, so we’re expecting a lot of company.
Found this reassuring note in D&D this am and thought of all the postings from you about how well Miami condo construction follows code and your specifications:
Other Worries
The Miami New Times notes that, beyond just construction cranes, the 27,000 condos built around the city since 2002 may not be prepared for the severity of Irma’s winds.
Assuming all of those structures were built to code, theyre capable of withstanding 175 mph winds (the highest that were recorded in Hurricane Andrew), but as of Wednesday (Sept. 6), Irma continued to sustain winds of 185 mph.
There are so many construction cranes in place in Miami, how do you protect against flying or swinging cranes?
Paid off city inspectors still exist, codes are not always followed. I suspect some of the glass will fail, including the installation.
They are evacuating in Dade and Broward east of 95
I guess these people are headed your way. Andrew proved that even good people get crazy when they evacuate. Make sure you have good security. I agreed to allow my daughter to bring her BF and roommate, two strong guys and their very big dog. Even though we live in a very safe community, all hell could break loose.
The strongest winds are always on the NW corner of the eye wall, which may stay offshore, that would be good, but this storm is so big and powerful I expect many deaths. I hope to god I am wrong, and of course hearing that FEMA is out of money doesn’t help.
A direct hit from IRMA could be Charleston, SC, hopefully our friends in Charleston are watching the storm track carefully. I visited Charleston, its a beautiful city, and have friends from So Fl who moved there to avoid hurricanes. Ironic.
From the weather underground last night:
If Irma makes a trek up the East Coast from Miami to southern South Carolina as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane, as the models currently suggest, the portions of the coast that the eyewall touches will potentially see a massive and catastrophic storm surge, breaking all-time storm surge records and causing many billions of dollars in damage. Even areas up to a hundred miles to the north of where the center makes landfall could potentially see record storm surges. The area of most concern is the northern coast of Florida, the coast of Georgia, and the southern coast of South Carolina, due to the concave shape of the coast, which will act to funnel and concentrate the storm surge to ridiculous heights. If we look at wundergrounds storm surge maps for the U.S. East Coast, we see that in a worst-case Category 3 hurricane hitting at high tide, the storm tide (the combined effect of the storm surge and the tide) ranges from 17 20 above ground along the northern coast of Florida, and 18 23 feet above ground along the Georgia coast. If Irma is a Cat 4, these numbers increase to 22 28 feet for the coast of Georgia. This is a Katrina-level storm surge, the kind that causes incredible destruction and mass casualties among those foolish enough to refuse to evacuate.
I expect IRMA’s path will be clearer by Sat morning, but I would not want to bet on it.
From Hurricane Andrew days I remember the great forecasts from Brian Norcross who many considered a hero for staying on air helping calm residents and offering advice to all. Brian joined weather.com in 2010, if he is still broadcasting I would be listening to him if I lived in Georgia, SC, or NC.
Phil, none of my clients care about their specs right now, a first, most are trying to find gas so they can come visit you (joking), I am curious where is everybody going, the keys evacuation is headed to Miami-Dade and Broward Counties which are evacuating too. All seem to be headed north.
Jerome, my father-in-law left his pre-Andrew Key Largo home yesterday afternoon (after much convincing by his children) and headed to Maryland - but hasn’t gotten out of Florida yet. Traffic is very slow. Other Key Largo people we know have gone to Naples (!) and Orlando. Homestead people we know are planning to leave Friday and head to “Georgia or Alabama” with their family of 50.
I hope that if you receive a mandatory evacuation order that you’ll leave!
Lisa I am not leaving, too many reasons to stay. Our family consists of me and my daughter. My daughter has mental health problems and is doing poorly today, she needs me and I need her. Leaving is not an option. I am 11 mi west of the western limit of the evacuation zone. If I lived in Key Largo that would be a different story. I am glad your dad got out.
Its ironic too I was about to start a new project in the Turks and Caicos Islands, which is receiving full impact today.
Peter, glad you and your family survived Harvey. Hope things are getting better in Texas at this point.
Phil, prayers are with you and Nancy. Sounds like you’re well prepared and ready for whatever comes your way.
Jerome, I know this isn’t your first rodeo and trust your judgment.
The folks on this Forum are some the smartest and nicest people I know. I’m hoping to hear “all clear” and good news over the next week or so.
Prayers to everyone in the Southeast corner of the US with hopes that the devastation doesn’t meet expectations.
Jerome, Phil, close all interior doors before the hurricane gets to you - it could save your roofs: https://disastersafety.org/ibhs-news-releases/shut-the-doors-on-hurricane-irma/